Strategic Flood Risk Assessment Report

Strategic Flood Risk Assessment for the Draft Cork City Development Plan 2022-2028

3.4 Sensitivity to Climate Change ‘The Planning System and Flood Risk Management Guidelines for Planning Authorities and Technical Appendices, 2009' recommends that a precautionary approach to climate change is adopted due to the level of uncertainty involved in the potential effects. In this regard, the Guidelines recommends:  Recognising that significant changes in the flood extent may result from an increase in rainfall or tide events and accordingly adopting a cautious approach to zoning land in these potential transitional areas;  Ensuring that the levels of structures designed to protect against flooding such as flood defences 6 , land raising or raised floor levels are sufficient to cope with the effects of climate change over the lifetime of the development they are designed to protect (normally 85-100 years); and  Ensuring that structures to protect against flooding and the development protected are capable of adaptation to the effects of climate change when there is more certainty about the effects and still time for such adaptation to be effective. Advice on the expected impacts of climate change and the allowances to be provided for future flood risk management in Ireland is given in the OPW Draft Guidance on Assessment of Potential Future Scenarios for Flood Risk Management (2009). Two climate change scenarios are considered. These are the Mid-Range Future Scenario (MRFS) and the High-End Future Scenario (HEFS). The MRFS is intended to represent a "likely" future scenario based on the wide range of future predictions available. The HEFS represents a more "extreme" future scenario at the upper boundaries of future projections. Based on these two scenarios the OPW recommended allowances for climate change in relation to river flows and sea levels are given in Table 4. These climate change allowances are particularly important at the development management stage of planning, and will ensure that proposed development is designed and constructed to take into account best current knowledge. Climate change allowances have been integrated into the recommendations provided at Section 4 of this report and MRFS and HEFS mapping is available from the OPW for certain areas, including AFAs, and provided in Appendix II to this SFRA report.

Table 4 Allowances for Future Scenarios (100-Year Time Horizon) 7

6 Defended areas are highly sensitive to climate change as the likelihood of defence failure and resulting flooding increases. 7 OPW Draft Guidance on Assessment of Potential Future Scenarios for Flood Risk Management (2009)

CAAS for Cork City Council